The Israel-Iran conflict
Should Israel and the US have attacked Iran? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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Quick announcement
We’re taking a one-week hiatus in recognition of the July 4th holiday and will be back in action the following week. I hope everyone’s having a great summer so far and gets to spend some quality time with loved ones this weekend.
Dylan
Snippets
The Senate voted to advance the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to a final vote expected late Monday or early Tuesday, after several weeks of public debate. The bill would extend tax cuts, increase spending on defense and immigration enforcement, and reduce some social benefit programs.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to limit federal judges’ ability to issue universal injunctions that prevent the US government from enforcing a law nationwide. Federal judges have been issuing orders to block President Trump’s executive orders, including the order to end birthright citizenship.
New York state assemblyman and self-identified democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani declared victory in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary after former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo conceded the election. Mamdani received nearly 44% of the votes to Cuomo’s 36%.
NATO countries agreed to spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense and security-related spending by 2035. The previous defense-spending target was 2%.
US-Canada trade talks have resumed after Canada rescinded a digital-services tax on American tech firms. Canada is attempting to reach a trade agreement in which the US would lift its current tariffs on steel and aluminum.
What’s happening
It's been nearly three weeks since Israel first carried out surprise airstrikes targeting a number of nuclear and military sites in Iran as part of Operation Rising Lion, a military campaign to inhibit Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. Over the course of 12 days, Israel conducted missile attacks across Iran on locations such as uranium enrichment facilities, weapons facilities, and government buildings including Iran's state broadcaster. The attacks killed hundreds of people, including Iranian military leadership, nuclear scientists, and civilians. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel with missile strikes of its own.
On June 22, the US conducted Operation Midnight Hammer, a multipronged attack on Iran that culminated in US B-2 Spirit bombers and submarines attacking three key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation was conducted, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put it, “to destroy or severely degrade Iran’s nuclear program.” Following the US strikes, President Trump, who had previously shared that he had given Iran a “60-day ultimatum” to make a deal to limit its nuclear program, made a speech in which he said the strikes were a “spectacular military success,” and that they “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. The following day, Iran launched multiple missiles against Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American military base in the Middle East. No US casualties were reported.
President Trump, following Iran’s attack and additional Israeli strikes on Iran, declared that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. Following Trump’s announcement, Iranian state television said that the ceasefire was “imposed,” but Iran then fired another missile strike at Israel. In turn, Israel briefly violated the ceasefire by firing its own missiles at Iran, but the ceasefire has tentatively held since.
Were the US bombings successful? Conflicting intelligence has left the success of the US attacks uncertain. Initially following the ceasefire, a leaked intelligence report written by the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that, based on the damage assessment, the US bombings of the 3 Iranian nuclear sites only set Iran’s nuclear program back several months – another analysis based on intercepted communications between Iranian officials indicated the attacks were not as destructive as expected. The Trump administration has refuted these reports. Separately, a preliminary report provided to European leaders assessed that Iran’s highly enriched uranium resources are mostly intact following the US strikes. Israel produced its own report declaring the Fordo site “inoperable” following the US bombing, and that the Israel-US attacks on Iran had set back Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions “many years.”
What were Iran’s nuclear capabilities? Since 1970, Iran has committed to not possessing a nuclear weapon as part of its membership in the broad Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Iran is also party to the more restrictive Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the JCPOA, however, is set to expire on Oct 18, which would technically free Iran from many of its current nuclear limits. Prior to Israel’s first attacks, the US and Iran had held negotiations as the JCPOA moved closer to expiration. (See our Apr 26 edition for more on the Iran nuclear talks.)
On the day of Israel’s first attacks, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report that Iran was in violation of its non-proliferation obligations. The IAEA shared its “serious concern regarding the rapid accumulation of highly enriched uranium by Iran,” particularly because Iran is the only country in the world without nuclear weapons that is producing that material. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Atomic Energy Organization replied to the IAEA’s report, calling it “politically motivated” and saying that in response to the report, Iran would launch a new enrichment facility.
In the aftermath of the exchanges between Israel, Iran, and the US, Iranian officials have said 935 people were killed in the strikes. In Israel, 28 people have been reported dead from the Iranian missile attacks. Debate continues over whether the decisions to attack Iran were effective ones. Today, we bring you the viewpoints from multiple sides. Let us know what you think.
Notable viewpoints
More opposed to the strikes on Iran:
Bombing Iran will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program or topple the current Iranian regime.
The US does not know whether it completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities – Iran still has a stockpile of enriched uranium, and Iran claims that the damage done by the US strikes is not irreversible. Because of these attacks, the Iranian government will likely escalate its nuclear activities, stop cooperating with the international community on proliferation, and rebuild its nuclear program in secret.
As Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said, military attacks alone will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program, and the best way to remove Iran’s nuclear threat is through a regime change. That said, it is very difficult to force a regime change through external pressure. Moreover, even if there was a regime change, it’s likely that any successor regime would still want to have nuclear weapons.
The US erred in intervening militarily in Iran.
According to the US Intelligence Committee, Iran was not building a nuclear bomb. Trump disregarded his own country’s intelligence services, and instead chose to believe Netanyahu, who wanted the US to become militarily involved with Iran.
Diplomacy with Iran had been working. The JCPOA had proven effective in preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon, despite the fact that it had given Iran concessions such as sanctions relief. By attacking Iran, the US has removed the possibility of coming to a better deal with Iran than the JCPOA. Instead, the US has pushed Iran closer to war or the possession of a nuclear weapon.
Trump violated the War Powers Act of 1973 and broke constitutional law by ordering an attack that was not accompanied by a declaration of war, not authorized by Congress, and not in response to an attack on American soil or troops.
The US and Israel’s decisions to attack Iran have made the world less safe.
Retaliatory missile strikes from Iran killed 28 people in Israel, wounded 500+ more, and paralyzed the Israeli economy. The damage that Israel suffered from Iran’s response to Israel’s bombing outweighs the unlikely threat posed by Iran’s hypothetical nuclear bomb.
The US bombing of Iran will compel Iran and associated terrorist organizations to carry out attacks against US people, facilities, and assets throughout the Middle East, which will inevitably lead to the US becoming involved in a prolonged and dangerous military conflict.
Israeli and US strikes on Iran could precipitate the downfall of the current Iranian regime, but a regime change may just drive additional instability and crises if another bad actor takes control. Furthermore, the fall of the Islamic Republic in multi-ethnic Iran could lead to a power vacuum, a fragmentation of the country’s population, and more violence akin to what happened in Iraq following the US invasion in 2003.
More supportive of the strikes on Iran:
Israel had a right to defend itself against a clear existential threat.
Iran has outwardly called for the annihilation of Israel for decades, continues to pursue developing a nuclear bomb in violation of non-proliferation obligations, has been actively exploring military plans to destroy Israel, and disregarded Trump’s 60-day deadline for a deal to limit its nuclear capabilities. Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, and Iran’s actions forced Israel to preemptively strike to defend itself.
In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, Israel was right to go on a maximalist offensive against forces that wish to see Israel cease to exist. Iran is the central source of instability in the Middle East and a true enemy of Western values, and Israel is acting as a source of good for the world by seeking to remove the Iranian threat.
There was a clear rationale for the US to bomb Iran.
Trump did not join or start a conflict with Iran by bombing the nuclear sites, as Iran has been waging war against the US for decades through military attacks and supporting terrorist organizations that have resulted in the death of 1,000 Americans over the past 40 years. The Iranian government has called for “death to America” for years, and a nuclear Iran would pose a severe threat to the US.
Whether or not the Iranian government had ordered the construction of a nuclear weapon, Iran’s nuclear program was preparing to do so. In the past year, Iran had increasingly discussed nuclear weapons in public, and Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was, as Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard put it, “unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.” Iran could have developed weapons-grade uranium within weeks, and potentially have made a nuclear weapon within months.
Trump’s decision to bomb Iran now was tactically prudent, necessary, and in support of a legitimate strategic objective. The US could not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, as it would forever change US security dynamics, and Iran clearly intended to develop one. By attacking now, the US also took advantage of Iran’s damaged military capabilities and limited ability to retaliate, thanks to Israel’s earlier attacks.
Destroying Iran’s nuclear program and toppling Iran’s regime will make the world a safer place.
Iran’s potential ability to use a nuclear bomb has historically given Iran leverage over the Middle East and allowed Iran to stand up a network of militant proxy groups in opposition to Israel, the US, and Gulf Arab States. Crippling Iran’s nuclear program and security infrastructure removes not only the threat of a nuclear bomb, but also Iran’s ability to influence and support militant proxy groups.
Stopping Iran from having a nuclear weapon prevents a nuclear chain reaction from occurring in the Middle East. For example, Saudi Arabia has said that if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would do so as well.
The case for overthrowing Iran’s current regime is strong. Iran sponsors terrorism around the world, and censors, violently oppresses, and continuously commits human rights violations against its population. Removing the current regime would also improve regional dynamics and free other Arab countries from Iran’s control.
Be heard
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your perspective on the decisions by the US and Israel to bomb Iran and we may feature it in our socials or future editions. Below are topic ideas to consider.
Do you think Israel and the US were right to attack Iran? Why or why not?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?
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