Outlook for Trump's presidency

Should Americans be optimistic or pessimistic about Trump’s second term? Viewpoints from multiple sides.

Nov 09, 2024

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What’s happening

Former President Donald Trump won back the White House this week, securing 295 electoral votes (as of this writing) to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump surprised many observers with the relative decisiveness of his victory – he’s on track to win all 7 swing states and the national popular vote, which he’s currently leading 50.7% to 47.8%.

Trump’s Republican party also won back control of the Senate, currently commanding a 53-45 majority with two races remaining to be called. The House of Representatives race is currently led by Republicans 212-199 (218 needed for control), with 24 races yet to be called.

As expected by many observers and much of the American public, reactions to Trump’s victory were polarized. This week, we take a brief look at viewpoints from across the spectrum expressing reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism about his second term.

To set the stage, a brief summary of some of the policy stances Trump has indicated he would action:

Immigration: He has said he would order mass deportations of illegal migrants, ramp up asylum restrictions at the US-Mexico border, and work to end automatic citizenship for the children of migrants that entered the country illegally.
Tariffs: Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs on goods imported from other countries, including a 60% tariff on goods from China and 10%-20% on imports from other countries.
Taxes: Trump campaigned on promises to remove taxes from tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. He has also said he would reduce corporate taxes and extend a broad tax cut he implemented in 2017 that is scheduled to expire in 2025.
Foreign policy: Trump said he supports and could drive a swift end to Ukraine’s war with Russia but has not provided specifics. He generally supports Israel’s fight against Hamas but has encouraged it to conclude its offensive, and he’s expressed a desire to reexamine “NATO's purpose and NATO's mission.”
Energy: Trump said he would promote domestic fossil fuel production by reducing oil drilling permitting requirements, roll-back President Biden’s electric vehicle and car emissions mandates, and pull the US from the Paris Climate Accords.
Abortion and fertility: Trump has said abortion rules should be left up to states and that he would oppose a federal abortion ban. He’s also signaled he would not attempt to limit the abortion pill mifepristone and would support access to in vitro fertilization (IVF).
Federal bureaucracy: Trump has promised to remove many federal employees from bureaucratic positions who he says pursue political agendas. He also pledged to enlist Elon Musk to help analyze and eliminate fiscal waste.
Other: Trump has also suggested he would use federal agencies to investigate and prosecute political rivals, consider pardoning individuals convicted of Jan 6 crimes, and remove certain transgender student protections enacted by the Biden administration.

See the viewpoints from multiple sides below and let us know what you think.

Notable viewpoints

More optimistic about Trump’s presidency:

Trump’s plans for tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation will benefit the economy.

The Trump administration will be good for the economy and markets through deregulation and tax cuts. For instance, mergers and acquisitions may face less scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), banks may be more profitable with less banking regulation, and domestic, smaller-cap stocks may benefit from tax cuts and tariffs that favor US production.
Trump’s proposed tariffs (as high as 60% on goods from China and 10%-20% from other countries) may not drive up inflation given the potential for offsetting forces including importers deciding to absorb price increases in their margins, a strengthening dollar, and Trump’s receptivity to reducing tariffs should they affect interest rates.
Trump’s promise to improve fiscal austerity is necessary and, along with his proposed tariffs, may help offset some of his potential tax-cut-driven increases to the federal deficit, which amounted to 6.3% of GDP in 2023.

Trump’s foreign policy stances will help strengthen alliances and reduce the risk of broader wars.

Trump’s pattern of putting pressure on North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to pay their fair share has driven them to commit hundreds of billions of dollars more on mutual defense and his posture will likely strengthen the NATO alliance during his second term.
Trump’s unpredictability could be an asset in foreign relations, driving foreign leaders to take more caution in their actions for fear of what Trump might do in response.
Trump will be more forceful in pushing a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine and give Ukraine a chance at permanent independence.

Trump has demonstrated a willingness to be flexible on certain issues.

Trump has demonstrated a willingness to go against his own party if a majority of Americans express support for a given policy position, which could bode well for decision-making on divisive issues.

Trump’s planned energy policies will increase American energy independence.

Trump’s emphasis on domestic energy production and nuclear power will help make the US more energy independent and keep energy prices low.

More pessimistic about Trump’s presidency:

Trump’s plans for tax cuts and tariffs will hurt the economy.

Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected by many economists to have upward pressure on inflation.
Trump’s proposed tax cuts – which include lower corporate taxes, deductions for car loan interest, and exemptions for tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits – could drive interest rates up.
While fiscal austerity to reduce the federal deficit is needed, Trump’s and Elon Musk’s plans to reduce federal spending seem likely to include healthcare spending cuts, which would negatively impact the middle class and poor more than the wealthy. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed tax cuts would also be more likely to benefit the wealthy.

Trump’s foreign policy stances will weaken alliances and threaten geopolitical stability.

Trump’s presidency will damage foreign alliances and embolden rival leaders. He threatened during his campaign, for example, to pull the US from NATO should other NATO countries not pay their fair share and suggested Russia could do as it pleased to member countries if they didn’t pull their weight. Such a statement threatens the integrity of NATO’s Article 5, which guarantees mutual defense of all member countries.
Trump may force Ukraine to cede its conquered territory in exchange for a ceasefire agreement with Russia, an outcome that Ukraine does not want and that might embolden future Russian aggression.

Trump’s vindictive tendencies and decision to surround himself with loyalists threaten to weaken American institutions.

Unlike during his first term, Trump’s inner circle now consists of many individuals that directly align to his views and are motivated to help deliver on his more extreme promises. Many of Trump’s former advisers and cabinet members that provided guardrails against him are no longer associated with him.
Trump, who has promised to purge the government of his political opponents, is vindictive and seems eager to punish his detractors while rewarding his most loyal supporters even if they’re relatively unqualified for certain government positions – a combination that could weaken the integrity of America’s institutions and violate civil liberties.

Trump’s stated plans on immigration may spark social unrest if carried out.

Trump has promised mass deportations of undocumented migrants after he is sworn-in, an act that could be catastrophic for American immigrants and cause a significant level of civil unrest.

Other viewpoints:

Trump will squander much of the political goodwill and diverse support he gained if he focuses too much on retribution against his enemies after taking office. He should, instead, pardon Hunter Biden and promise not to prosecute Joe Biden to set a new tone. (Summarized from Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.)
While a recent Supreme Court ruling gave presidents some immunity for their actions in office, the Supreme Court has also historically ruled against Trump’s wishes. New guardrails on executive actions now also exist that, while angering progressives at the time of their enactment, will likely help keep Trump in check if needed.

Be heard
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your outlook on Trump’s second term and we may feature it in our socials or future newsletters. Below are topic ideas to consider.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Trump’s leadership during his second term?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?

Snippets

The FBI thwarted a plot by Iranian agents allegedly aimed at assassinating Donald Trump prior to Election Day. An Iranian operative, according to federal prosecutors, had been asked to develop a plan by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. It is the second cut this year after a 50 basis point cut in September as the Federal Reserve prioritizes job growth balanced with easing inflation.
President-elect Donald Trump named Susie Wiles as his chief of staff. Wiles effectively managed his campaign and will be the first woman to serve in the White House role.
Seven of the 10 US states with abortion rights measures on their ballots passed those measures, putting constitutional amendments in place to protect or expand abortion access. Florida, South Dakota, and Nebraska were the three states where voters struck down such ballot proposals.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu removed Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from his position, citing significant differences between their views on Gaza and Lebanon. Foreign Minister Israel Katz was tapped as Gallant’s replacement.

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