Declining birth rates in the US
Which approaches would help increase birth rates in America? Viewpoints from multiple sides.
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Snippets
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Canada’s Liberal Party won a plurality of seats in the country’s House of Commons elections, with the Conservative Party placing second. The victory marks a significant comeback for the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose party had been trailing the Conservative Party in polling at the beginning of the year.
What’s happening
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has reportedly been hearing outside proposals on ways to increase the birth rate in the US. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report last week concluding the birth rate (i.e., the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) in 2024 was roughly 1.63 births per woman, close to the all-time low of 1.62 in 2023 and below the estimated population replacement rate of 2.10. Birth rates have steadily declined since 2007.
The significance of birth rate: While there are a variety of reasons people may support pronatalist policies, economic growth is a common concern cited by economists. Lower birth rates may cause a country’s workforce to dwindle as it ages, with fewer young people to fill jobs, which could threaten economic stability and limit support for the elderly. A common viewpoint opposed to pronatalist policies emphasizes independence and the value of pursuing a life outside of traditional familial expectations or gender roles. Despite declining birth rates over the past 18 years, the US population has continued to grow in part through immigration.
The proposals: The range of proposals that have reportedly been submitted to the Trump administration include a $5,000 “baby bonus” to women for every delivery, reserving 30% of Fulbright Scholarships for married couples or parents, a “National Medal of Motherhood” that would be awarded to any woman with at least six children, and higher spending on conception education. President Trump has called the $5,000 “baby bonus” a “good idea.”
Existing policy: There is currently a $2,000 child tax credit for parents with incomes below $200,000 filing individually or for parents with combined incomes below $400,000 filing jointly. Without additional congressional action, the tax credit will fall back down to $1,000 at the end of 2025, the level from which President Trump raised the tax credit during his first term.
This week, we take a brief look at some of the viewpoints on ways to increase the birth rate. We frame the perspectives primarily in a way that assumes higher birth rates are the goal, leaving the debate over whether they should be for a separate examination. Let us know what you think.
Notable viewpoints
Increasing birth rates would require more significant economic policies.
More sweeping policies like federally mandated paid parental leave to help alleviate the cost of child care and the funding of solutions that make pregnancy and birth safer would be more effective in encouraging childbirth than a $5,000 “baby bonus.”
Research suggests that economic support for families does yield more births, but the economic support must be significantly larger than a one-time $5,000 “baby bonus.” For instance, a 2020 analysis published by the Institute for Family Studies estimated that to increase birth rates by 21% (the approximate percentage required to get back up to replacement rate) would require providing mothers in the US a child benefit equal to an additional $2,800-$23,000 per year (beyond existing tax credits) for the first 18 years of their child’s life, with the amount varying according to a mother’s financial situation.
Other policy solutions that indirectly affect birth rates would have a meaningful impact.
Pro-growth economic policies that give Americans a more positive outlook on the future – rather than, for instance, sweeping tariffs, which have created economic uncertainty – would likely help improve birth rates. A 2025 Harvard Youth Poll of Americans aged 18-29 found that only 15% believe the country is “heading in the right direction.”
Better regulations that limit certain air and water pollutants would help improve birth rates from a biological fertility perspective. For instance, studies have found links between polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and infertility in males and females.
“What young men and women really need is affordable housing, affordable higher education (including trade schools), and a strong economy that can deliver good-paying jobs. Making it harder for young men to get lost in online pornography and gambling would help, too.” (Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner.)
Pronatalist policies should focus primarily on encouraging marriage.
Marriage rates have fallen by roughly 60% since the 1970s, yet marriage is the most viable path to having children. Policy efforts should focus more on promoting and supporting marriage, such as a one-time tax credit for newlyweds.
The average ages for men and women in the US getting married are now 30 and 28, respectively, while in the 1990s they were 26 and 24, respectively. Based on the current percentage of women that have at least three children when married by age 30 compared to those married after 30, reducing the average marriage age closer to 1990s levels would likely lead to a high enough increase in births to effectively return birth rates to replacement levels.
“The problem is that married women make up a much smaller percentage of the population than they used to. As recently as 2007, when women were having enough babies to sustain our population, 55% of women between the ages of 20 and 44 were married. Today, just 45% are, and the fall has been steepest for women under 30.” (Washington Examiner Editorial Board.)
Cultural shifts would be necessary to change current birth rate trends.
Deeper, underlying cultural drivers are behind declining birth rates that economic policies, alone, cannot significantly reverse. Americans are prioritizing their social lives, freedom to travel, and career pursuits over the commitment to having a family.
“Government interventions do not work because they do not compensate for the opportunity cost of having children. Modern life frames parenthood in terms of what you give up rather than what you gain…you see your friends less, eat out less, travel less, go to the gym less, are less likely to take up a promotion if it means longer hours.” (Kristina Murkett, The Spectator.)
Government-led policies to reduce the economic burden of children will have minimal impact on birth rates. In most Western countries, birth rates have been declining since 2010 and the US, which has long had less favorable family support policies than countries like Sweden and Norway, still has higher birth rates than Sweden or Norway.
Current educational programs in the US teach more about avoiding pregnancy than about healthy ways to get pregnant. It will take a shift in educational policy and cultural emphases on the beauty and desirability of having a family to improve birth rates.
The pronatalist movement ignores the fact that 64% of women under 50 don’t want children and should be free from pressure against prioritizing their careers, personal ambitions, and living as childless adults.
Be heard
We want to hear from you! Comment below with your perspective on current birth rate trends in the US and we may feature it in our socials or future newsletters. Below are topic ideas to consider.
If the goal is to increase birth rates, which approaches do you think need to be prioritized in order to achieve it? Why?
What are some arguments or supporting points you appreciate about a viewpoint you disagree with?
Give us your feedback! Please let us know how we can improve.
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